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OBJECTIVE: To determine whether observed changes in HIV prevalence in countries with generalised HIV epidemics are associated with changes in sexual risk behaviour. METHODS: A mathematical model was developed to explore the relation between prevalence recorded at antenatal clinics (ANCs) and the pattern of incidence of infection throughout the population. To create a null model a range of assumptions about sexual behaviour, natural history of infection, and sampling biases in ANC populations were explored to determine which factors maximised declines in prevalence in the absence of behaviour change. Modelled prevalence, where possible based on locally collected behavioural data, was compared with the observed prevalence data in urban Haiti, urban Kenya, urban Cote d'Ivoire, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Uganda, and urban Ethiopia. RESULTS: Recent downturns in prevalence observed in urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti, like Uganda before them, could only be replicated in the model through reductions in risk associated with changes in behaviour. In contrast, prevalence trends in urban Cote d'Ivoire, Malawi, urban Ethiopia, and Rwanda show no signs of changed sexual behaviour. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in patterns of HIV prevalence in urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti are quite recent and caution is required because of doubts over the accuracy and representativeness of these estimates. Nonetheless, the observed changes are consistent with behaviour change and not the natural course of the HIV epidemic.

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OBJECTIVES: In 2003 an estimated 87 000 AIDS deaths and approximately 110 000 new infections occurred in Malawi. This paper aimed to analyse and review HIV prevalence trends in conjunction with other second generation surveillance data including behavioural data and, therefore, to describe trends in HIV prevalence and behaviours related to HIV transmission. METHODS: In order to determine the extent of the problem, HIV prevalence in Malawi has been monitored through testing women attending antenatal clinics in 19 sentinel sites consistently since 1994. These sites are classified as urban, semi-urban, and rural. RESULTS: The overall HIV prevalence for all 19 ANC sentinel sites in 2003 was 19.8% (95% CI 19.0% to 20.7%). The central region urban/semi-urban sites showed a decline in prevalence from 1999 to 2003. Since 1997, overall national incidence estimates remained stable. This stable incidence estimate is supported by the proxy of fairly stable prevalence in ANC attendees aged 15-24 years. HIV sentinel surveillance data for Lilongwe city showed a significant linear decline in prevalence (p<0.00001) over the last seven years for both all ANC attendees and those aged 15-24 years suggesting that incidence has declined over the time period. CONCLUSION: The available epidemiological and behavioural surveillance data show that HIV prevalence has declined in several urban and semi-urban areas, specifically in the central region with Lilongwe (capital of Malawi) showing exceptionally strong evidence of decline. In some rural areas, particularly in the northern region there is some evidence of an increasing trend in HIV prevalence.

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Blood donors represent a carefully selected population of individuals. In particular, they have reduced prevalence and incidence rates for hepatitis and retroviral markers when compared to the general population. Serological testing of all donations further decreases the risk of collecting an infectious blood unit to negligible levels. Nevertheless, a significant fraction of this residual risk will be eliminated by the introduction of nucleic acid testing for viral genomic material in donor samples. This testing, which has already reached the initial phases of implementation, will be performed on pooled samples, at least in the first instance.

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BACKGROUND: This study evaluated the change from a rapid plasma reagin (RPR) test to an automated specific treponemal test (PK-TP) in screening for syphilis in blood donors. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A cross-sectional seroprevalence analysis was performed on 4,878,215 allogeneic blood donations from 19 American Red Cross Blood Services regions from May 1993 through September 1995. Positive predictive values relative to the confirmatory fluorescent treponemal antibody absorption test (FTA-ABS) were calculated. Differences in seroprevalence were compared in RPR and PK-TP tests for 1) unconfirmed and confirmed tests, 2) first-time and repeat donors, and 3) "recent" versus "past" infections. Donation data from three additional Red Cross regions were evaluated for repeat donation patterns of blood donors who had a donation that was positive in a serologic screening test for syphilis. The value of RPR and PK-TP tests as surrogate markers for HIV infection was compared. RESULTS: Reactive rates were lower but the positive predictive values was higher for the PK-TP test than for the RPR test. Initially, donors screened by PK-TP were more likely to be confirmed as positive than were donors screened by RPR, but these rates became comparable. It is estimated that a single HIV window-period donation was removed by serologic testing for syphilis each year of this study period. CONCLUSIONS: The change to the PK-TP test resulted in a lower repeatedly reactive rate, better prediction that a confirmed-positive test for syphilis would occur in testing in the FTA-ABS, fewer donations lost, and comparable deferral rates. Because of the high rate of reactivity to serologic testing for syphilis among donors previously confirmed positive for syphilis, indefinite deferral after a confirmed-positive index donation may be warranted. Serologic testing for syphilis is ineffective as a marker of HIV-infectious window-period donations.

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BACKGROUND: This study evaluated the usefulness of the serologic test for syphilis (STS) in preventing the transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B and C viruses, and human T-lymphotropic virus via the transfusion of seronegative, infectious window-period blood. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Demographic and laboratory information on blood donations made between January 1992 and June 1994 in 18 American Red Cross regions was analyzed. It was assumed that the same proportion of HIV-positive and HIV-infectious window-period donations reacted on STS and were negative on other screening tests (hepatitis B and C viruses and human T-lymphotropic virus). This proportion multiplied by the estimated number of HIV-infectious window-period donations is the number of post-screening HIV-infectious donations removed by STS. RESULTS: Of 4,468,570 donations, 12,145 (0.27%) were STS positive and 377 (0.008%) were HIV positive. Among donations that were negative on other screening tests, STS-reactive donations were 12 times more likely to be HIV positive (odds ratio = 11.9; 95% CI = 5,26). However, of an estimated 13 infectious window-period donations, 0.2 would have been removed because of a reactive STS, at a cost of over $16 million. CONCLUSION: STS is a poor marker and a costly strategy for preventing post-screening HIV infections and other blood-borne diseases.

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BACKGROUND: In the United States, transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) by blood transfusion occurs almost exclusively when a recently infected blood donor is infectious but before antibodies to HIV become detectable (during the "window period"). We estimated the risk of HIV transmission caused by transfusion on the basis of the window period associated with the use of current, sensitive enzyme immunosorbent assays and recent data on HIV incidence among blood donors. METHODS: We analyzed demographic and laboratory data on more than 4.1 million blood donations obtained in 1992 and 1993 in 19 regions served by the American National Red Cross, as well as the results of HIV-antibody tests of 4.9 million donations obtained in an additional 23 regions. RESULTS: We estimated that, in the 19 study regions, 1 donation in every 360,000 (95 percent confidence interval, 210,000 to 1,140,000) was made during the window period. In addition, it is estimated that 1 in 2,600,000 donations was HIV-seropositive but was not identified as such because of an error in the laboratory. We estimated that 15 to 42 percent of window-period donations were discarded because they were seropositive on laboratory tests other than the HIV-antibody test. When these results were extrapolated to include the additional 23 Red Cross service regions, there was a risk of one case of HIV transmission for every 450,000 to 660,000 donations of screened blood. If the Red Cross centers are assumed to be representative of all U.S. blood centers, among the 12 million donations collected nationally each year an estimated 18 to 27 infectious donations are available for transfusion. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated risk of transmitting HIV by the transfusion of screened blood is very small and nearly half that estimated previously, primarily because the sensitivity of enzyme immunosorbent assays has been improved.

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BACKGROUND: The confidential unit exclusion (CUE) option is intended to reduce human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission by excluding donors newly infected with HIV who have not yet developed HIV antibody (window-period donors); however, its efficacy in excluding window-period donors has not been evaluated. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The use of the CUE option was studied among the donors of 3.7 million units at 18 American Red Cross blood services regions during 1991 and 1992 and among 322 previously HIV-1-seronegative donors who subsequently donated a seropositive unit between 1987 and 1990 at 40 United States blood centers. These seroconverting donors had previously been shown to be highly likely to donate during their window period. RESULTS: On the basis of data from these two populations, it was estimated that only 3 to 5 percent of units donated by window-period donors were not transfused because of the CUE option, that 0.4 percent of all donations were from donors who confidentially excluded their blood from transfusion, and that donors who confidentially excluded their blood were 21 times more likely to be HIV antibody-positive than donors who did not use the CUE option. It is estimated that, if all US blood centers used the CUE option, a total of 2 to 17 otherwise acceptable units donated by window-period donors would not be transfused annually. CONCLUSION: Although donors who confidentially exclude their blood from transfusion are 21 times more likely to have HIV antibody, the rarity of window-period donors and the infrequency of confidential exclusion by window-period donors cause the CUE option to have minimal impact on transfusion safety.

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